Jun 14, 2022·edited Jun 14, 2022Liked by Tom Basso
Solidly reasoned indeed. TY for sharing! I wonder how traditional futures TF performed in those various phases. If there was a clear performance distinction. If we enter stagflation, it seems everything would suffer. Also, If this regime persists, and completes the Green New Deal...Paradigm shifts in free markets. interesting times
Totally agree with all your comments. Peter just noticed that this had happened and passed it along. With all the options, futures, cryptos and leverage with the companies and the country's balance sheet, there could be a lot of leverage unwinding in our future. Hard to quantify it exactly and it doesn't all have to unwind in order to create a serious bear market. Always interesting watching it play out. I've seen so many in my lifetime, I'm a bit numb to it all.
interesting way of looking at potential bear-market drawdowns that I've not seen elsewhere. We'll see how this plays out.
At first glance, to say that a 60% possible leverage on the retail side equals 60% likely drawdown during a bear market sounds weird and simplistic. Leverage is not just what level of margin folks get at their brokerage; leverage is also and very much a function of how much inherent leverage the companies you are investing in are using. If you buy a house at 30% down your leverage is obvious; if you buy a REIT at 30% margin your leverage could be sky-high.
Solidly reasoned indeed. TY for sharing! I wonder how traditional futures TF performed in those various phases. If there was a clear performance distinction. If we enter stagflation, it seems everything would suffer. Also, If this regime persists, and completes the Green New Deal...Paradigm shifts in free markets. interesting times
Thanks for sharing
A very thoughtful analysis. Thank you for sharing. My golf analogy.....put the drive in the bag. Dial it back, prepare all contigencies
Totally agree with all your comments. Peter just noticed that this had happened and passed it along. With all the options, futures, cryptos and leverage with the companies and the country's balance sheet, there could be a lot of leverage unwinding in our future. Hard to quantify it exactly and it doesn't all have to unwind in order to create a serious bear market. Always interesting watching it play out. I've seen so many in my lifetime, I'm a bit numb to it all.
Thanks for sharing
interesting way of looking at potential bear-market drawdowns that I've not seen elsewhere. We'll see how this plays out.
At first glance, to say that a 60% possible leverage on the retail side equals 60% likely drawdown during a bear market sounds weird and simplistic. Leverage is not just what level of margin folks get at their brokerage; leverage is also and very much a function of how much inherent leverage the companies you are investing in are using. If you buy a house at 30% down your leverage is obvious; if you buy a REIT at 30% margin your leverage could be sky-high.