Quit Predicting!

Some posts and my observations

First, I’d like to apologize to whoevers posts that I used here. You may recognize yourself, and I don’t want to appear to be insulting you. I am simply trying to use these posts to point out the thinking of some traders and contrast that with my thinking after 50 years of doing this. I also wanted to do it in a slightly humorous way, so that it didn’t seem so clinical. I blacked out the personal info to keep it as anonymous as possible.

Second, I want you all to read my comments from the view that I have of making my mental process in trading simple and low angst. I have to protect “Mr. Serenity’s” reputation after all.

Example: Here’s a trader having a debate, WITH HIMSELF!

Tom> I’m not sure what pancake-flipping mode is! Why not just wait for trading vehicles to change their trend, go with it, set your stops and enjoy the ride? Predicting just rattles the nerves.

Example: Nitpicking every little wiggle of prices in the noise zone and trying to make it important information on what may happen.

Tom> Just put in your stop buy above the noise and when it breaks upward, you’re on an uptrend and long.

Example: Wondering what others are doing.

Tom> Don’t question what a market is doing or why? Simple measure it and go with it. Overthinking a move will cause you to freeze and not take action with your strategy. Who cares what others are doing? Just run your strategy for your portfolio and let others do the same.

Example: Which way will we break?

Tom> If it breaks up, go long. If it breaks down, go short. Manage your position sizes and risk. Rinse and repeat!

Example: Must be an important day.

Tom> I do the same thing every day. Haven’t changed almost anything from Pandemic Crashes to current bear market action. No one day changes anything I do. Measure the trend and react.

Example: Hating the indecision.

Tom> You don’t get to dictate what the market will do next. The market will do what the market will do. No need to hate the moment. When will the moment ever be right?

Example: No position, but have a question.

Tom> With no position, he’s speculating on what might happen. Seems like he should be concentrating more on other financial instruments that are doing something he can exploit to produce profits. It’s better for your returns.

Example: The pros predictions

Tom> Best observation I noticed today. The pros really don’t have any more of a clue than you on what will happen, so what makes you think that you’re smarter than they are? If Tesla goes into an up move, go long. If it caves be short. Keep it simple and clear.

The Bottom Line: QUIT PREDICTING!!!! and enjoy the ride!